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Contributed by Dr. Gleb Tsipursky.
One of the biggest dangers for entrepreneurs comes when their enterprise grows from being a small shop of 10 people to a midsized company of 100 or more. Entrepreneurial decision-making must change to account for this growth, but it often doesn’t due to our desire to avoid losses.
To illustrate why, let me tell you a story.
It’s your lucky day! You meet a kind stranger who offers you something for nothing. No tricks, really: You’re getting a free lunch.
She gives you US$45. Then she asks if you want to keep that money or give it to her in exchange for a coin flip. If it lands heads up, she’ll give you US$100. If it’s tails, you get nothing.
Which do you choose? Do you want US$45 cash in your pocket or are you willing to take a chance with the coin flip? Decide before reading further.
When I present this scenario in my speeches to business audiences, about 80 percent say they’ll take the money from the kind stranger. I made that choice when I first learned about this scenario and so do most people in studies of similar choices.
After all, the US$45 is a sure thing. Wouldn’t I feel foolish if I took a risk and lost it all for just a chance at getting US$100? My gut reaction was to avoid losing out. After all, who wants to be a loser, right?
Well, let’s run the numbers. The chance of getting heads is 50 percent, so in half of all cases you’ll win US$100 and in the rest, you won’t win anything. That’s equivalent to US$50 on average, versus US$45.
Imagine you flipped a coin 10 times, 100 times, 1,000 times, 10,000 times, and then 100,000 times. At 100,000, on average you would get US$5 million if you chose the coin flip for US$100 each time, versus US$4.5 mil… Read More
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